Manchester, New Hampshire — Former President Donald Trump is positioned as the frontrunner in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, according to a recent poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire. Following his significant victory in Iowa’s caucuses last week, Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State. His closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, trails behind at 39%. Both candidates have seen an increase in support since the previous poll in January.
The diminishing field of major contenders, which now stands at three, has allowed Trump and Haley to solidify their positions. While Haley has gained substantial support since last summer, she has been unable to catch up to Trump, whose popularity and staunch supporters outweigh the appeal of his challengers.
It has long been believed that New Hampshire, with its independent-minded electorate and more moderate pool of likely primary voters, would offer the best opportunity to challenge Trump’s bid for a third straight GOP presidential nomination. However, this latest survey suggests that Trump’s popularity within the GOP base is paramount and overshadows the appeal of his rivals.
Notably, Haley has managed to win the support of key groups such as registered undeclared voters, ideologically moderate individuals, and those with college degrees. However, these groups represent a minority of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire.
Trump has maintained strong support among registered Republicans, conservatives, and those without a college degree. Among his supporters, a significant majority have decisively chosen to stand by him, compared to Haley’s supporters. As the primary approaches, about 20% of likely Republican voters have yet to solidify their choice, with a majority leaning towards Haley.
Overall, New Hampshire’s likely Republican primary voters have an optimistic outlook on Trump’s potential victory, with 70% believing that he will emerge as the winner. Furthermore, a majority express satisfaction and enthusiasm should Trump claim the party’s presidential nomination. In terms of favorability, Trump enjoys higher ratings compared to Haley and another contender, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The survey also delved into the expectations of Trump’s supporters regarding his campaign promises. Majority support his proposals to build a wall along the US-Mexico border, impose a travel ban on certain Muslim-majority countries, appoint a special prosecutor to investigate President Joe Biden and his family, and bring an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, fewer believe he can dismantle the “deep state” or repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
On the Democratic side, the majority of likely primary voters express a preference for write-in candidate Joe Biden. Biden’s decision not to file for the primary ballot in New Hampshire, due to DNC rules, has not deterred his supporters from launching a write-in effort. Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson also enjoy some support.
While most Democratic primary voters would be satisfied with Biden as their party’s nominee, enthusiasm for him falls behind that of Trump among Republican primary voters. Additionally, only 46% of likely Democratic primary voters believe Biden would give Democrats the best chance of winning in 2024, while 39% believe someone else would be more beneficial.
Overall, the poll reveals that Trump continues to command support within the GOP base, making him the favored candidate in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Despite the efforts of other contenders, Trump’s popularity and commitment from his supporters remain unmatched.