Concord, New Hampshire – In the closely watched 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary election, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley made a strong showing, particularly among moderate and independent voters. However, her support was not enough to overcome the popularity of former President Donald Trump. Trump, who enjoyed strong support among the Republican base, secured a victory and garnered the majority of votes from key demographic groups.
While Trump faced concerns over his legal troubles, a significant number of New Hampshire voters believed that even if he were convicted of a crime, he would still be fit to hold the presidency. This sentiment contributed to Trump’s success in the primary.
Exit polls revealed that New Hampshire GOP voters were most interested in candidates who embodied qualities such as being a fighter and someone who shared their values. Trump’s strong image as a fighter propelled him ahead of Haley among voters who prioritized these qualities. On the other hand, Haley overwhelmingly won among those who sought a candidate with the right temperament, although fewer voters considered this their top priority.
One of the pivotal factors in the primary was the influence of independent voters. With more than four in 10 New Hampshire primary voters identifying as independent, compared to just 16% in Iowa, their support was crucial. Haley managed to secure the majority of independent votes, but Trump prevailed among self-identified Republicans, winning about three-quarters of their support.
Trump’s appeal cut across various demographic groups, with both younger and older voters favoring him. He also enjoyed a majority of support from men and remained neck and neck with Haley among women. While Haley performed better among New Hampshire voters with college degrees, Trump’s lead among those without a college education was more substantial due to the larger presence of this demographic.
The top issues that shaped voters’ decisions were the economy and immigration, and Trump emerged as the favored candidate among voters who considered these matters most important. A majority of New Hampshire GOP primary voters indicated their belief that most undocumented immigrants in the U.S. should be deported, aligning with Trump’s hardline stance on immigration.
While Haley had a dedicated following among voters who prioritized foreign policy and abortion, fewer voters ranked these issues as their top concerns. It’s worth noting that Haley’s support seemed to be largely driven by opposition to Trump, as only one in three of her voters strongly favored her candidacy.
Looking ahead, it is clear that supporters of both candidates would harbor dissatisfaction if the other were to become the nominee. Approximately eight in 10 Trump voters expressed discontent with the prospect of Haley winning the nomination, while a larger proportion of Haley voters would be dissatisfied if Trump were to secure the nomination.
The New Hampshire primary has further solidified Trump’s hold on the Republican base, showcasing his ability to maintain widespread support even outside of his presidency. As the race for the Republican nomination unfolds, candidates will need to carefully consider how to appeal to a diverse electorate and address the concerns that matter most to voters.