Des Moines, Iowa – The 2024 presidential campaign is officially underway as the first votes will be cast in Iowa’s caucuses tonight. Republicans will join independents and Democrats who have switched parties to participate in this critical political event.
According to the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released on Saturday, former President Donald Trump is the clear favorite among Republican voters. Trump, who is seeking to return to the White House after losing in 2020, has a sizable lead over his chief rivals, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Also in the running are biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, and little-known Texas pastor Ryan Binkley. The results of the Iowa caucuses will provide clarity to the GOP race before it moves on to the New Hampshire primary next week.
Several key storylines are worth watching during this political event. One of them is the weather, as subzero temperatures are forecasted, potentially making it the coldest caucus day on record. The extreme cold may impact voter turnout, and candidates like DeSantis and Haley have postponed events due to the hazardous conditions. Trump, however, has expressed confidence that his supporters will brave the weather to attend the caucuses.
Trump’s margin of victory will also be closely scrutinized. If he secures over 50% of the vote, it diminishes the likelihood of an alternative candidate gaining momentum. However, if Trump falls short of a majority, it could reenergize the “Not-Trump” faction of the party to rally behind the strongest competitor emerging from Iowa.
The battle for second place between Haley and DeSantis is expected to be intense. DeSantis faces significant pressure to outperform Haley, as a third-place finish would dampen his prospects heading into states where he is already trailing her in polling.
Another factor to consider is the influence of first-time caucusgoers. Trump and Ramaswamy have both targeted these voters, with Trump seeking to capitalize on his brand’s appeal to newcomers and Ramaswamy trying to attract disengaged voters. If Trump succeeds in mobilizing first-time caucusgoers, it could further solidify his victory.
Ramaswamy, an outsider candidate, has made considerable efforts in Iowa, holding numerous campaign events. Although he trails in the polls, his unexpectedly strong showing in the top three would be a major surprise.
As the Iowa caucuses unfold, political observers will be watching closely to see how these storylines develop and shape the dynamics of the 2024 presidential campaign.
Note: The original article was rewritten in AP News Style to ensure it met the desired criteria.