TAIPEI, Taiwan – Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) secured a historic third consecutive presidential victory on Saturday, defying warnings from China about the potential for conflict with their re-election. Vice President Lai Ching-te, the DPP’s candidate, declared victory while his two opposition rivals conceded defeat. Lai addressed thousands of jubilant supporters, proclaiming that their win ensures Taiwan’s place on the world stage and reaffirms the commitment of the Taiwanese people to democracy.
The election campaign highlighted Taiwan’s vibrant democratic credentials and centered on livelihood issues and the challenge of managing relations with its powerful neighbor, China. The DPP’s victory reflects the voters’ support for Taiwan as a de facto sovereign nation that should strengthen defense against China’s threats and deepen relations with democratic countries, even at the risk of economic punishment and military intimidation from Beijing.
Despite outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen’s inability to seek re-election due to term limits, Lai’s victory is not expected to improve ties between Beijing and Taipei. Mainland China views Taiwan as its territory, although it has never controlled it. The Chinese Communist Party has pursued a goal of “reunification” with Taiwan, with President Xi Jinping calling it a “historical inevitability.” However, the DPP emphasizes that the future of Taiwan should only be decided by its 23.5 million people and rejects the notion of subordination to the Chinese Communist Party.
Lai’s win comes as the United States seeks to stabilize its relations with China and prevent potential conflict. During Tsai’s administration, Taiwan strengthened ties with the US, its biggest supporter, with increased support and arms sales. US officials have stated that Washington will maintain its long-standing policy toward Taiwan, regardless of who holds the top job. To show support for Taiwan, the Biden administration plans to dispatch an unofficial delegation to Taipei, including former senior officials.
The DPP’s victory deals another blow to Taiwan’s opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), whose stance favors warmer relations with Beijing and has not held the presidency since 2016. Beijing had openly expressed its desire for the KMT’s return to power.
China has various coercive measures at its disposal to show its displeasure with the DPP’s victory, such as escalating economic and military pressure. However, Taiwan’s security officials predict that large-scale military actions are unlikely in the immediate aftermath of the election due to unsuitable weather conditions and efforts to stabilize Beijing-Washington relations.
While tensions may increase, analysts believe that the DPP’s victory does not guarantee an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The hope is that an “uncomfortable middle ground” can be maintained, as has been the case over the past eight years.
In summary, Taiwan’s ruling DPP achieved a historic third consecutive presidential victory, defying China’s warnings of potential conflict. The DPP’s win reflects the voters’ support for Taiwan as a sovereign nation and their commitment to democracy. The election outcome is unlikely to improve relations between Taipei and Beijing. Meanwhile, the United States intends to maintain its policy toward Taiwan and send a delegation to show support. The victory is a setback for Taiwan’s opposition party, the KMT, and China may employ coercive measures to express its discontent. However, a full-scale military conflict is not anticipated in the immediate future.