Manchester, New Hampshire USA – The latest polling data suggests that former President Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner in the race for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. According to a recent CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire, Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in the state. His closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, trails behind with 39% support. Both candidates have seen their support increase since the last poll in January, but Haley has not been able to close the gap with Trump.
The significance of the New Hampshire primary lies in its potential to derail Trump’s bid for a third consecutive GOP presidential nomination. Historically, New Hampshire has been the state where Trump has enjoyed the least majority support, with voters showing more openness to his rivals. However, the latest survey demonstrates that Trump’s popularity within the GOP base and the loyalty of his supporters outweigh the appeal of his challengers.
New Hampshire’s primary electorate is known for its independent streak and more moderate voter pool compared to other early states. This has made it a target for Trump’s opponents, with hopes of gaining traction and standing out in a field of contenders. Haley, in particular, has made significant gains among independent voters, as well as those who consider themselves ideologically moderate and hold college degrees. However, these groups represent a minority of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire.
Meanwhile, Trump has maintained strong support from registered Republicans, conservatives, and those without college degrees. The survey also revealed that a larger percentage of Trump supporters have firmly decided to back him compared to Haley’s supporters.
With the New Hampshire primary just a few days away, a significant number of likely Republican primary voters have not yet made their choice. Among this group, Haley currently holds the majority of support. Overall, most Republican primary voters in New Hampshire expect Trump to win the primary. They also have a more favorable view of Trump compared to Haley or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who recently ended his White House bid and endorsed Trump.
While Trump is viewed more favorably among likely GOP primary voters, a majority of New Hampshire residents believe that both Trump and President Joe Biden have hurt the country during their respective presidencies.
The CNN poll was conducted online from January 16-19 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The sample size included 2,348 New Hampshire adults and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points. The subgroups of likely Republican and Democratic primary voters had margins of error of plus or minus 2.8 and 3.5 percentage points, respectively.
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