MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — As the race for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to two candidates, Donald Trump is leading among New Hampshire voters over his last remaining challenger, Nikki Haley, ahead of Tuesday’s primary, according to a recent poll.
According to a Washington Post-Monmouth University poll, Trump has the support of 52% of potential primary voters, while Haley has the support of 34%. The poll was conducted before Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign.
Haley’s support has nearly doubled since November, benefiting from the withdrawal of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. However, Trump’s support has also grown, potentially due to the withdrawal and endorsement of entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, as well as DeSantis immediately endorsing Trump.
Trump’s support is strong among the party’s conservative base, while Haley has been consolidating support among moderates and independent voters. However, there is little evidence to suggest that Haley has made significant gains on Trump since her third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses.
New Hampshire’s undeclared voters, who can participate in the Republican primary, play a significant role in the state’s presidential primaries. They make up a large percentage of potential Republican primary voters, with 47% not registered as Republicans. The Washington Post-Monmouth poll found that among undeclared voters, Haley leads Trump by 10 points.
Haley’s advantage with undeclared voters will be crucial to her performance on Tuesday. Other polls also show varying estimates for her support. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe/NBC-10 poll showed Haley leading by eight points among undeclared voters, while a CNN-UNH poll showed her leading by 28 points.
New Hampshire has a relatively large share of moderate-to-liberal Republican voters, which could work in Haley’s favor. She has seen an increase in support among this group, but struggles with conservative voters who make up a larger portion of the potential electorate.
It is worth noting that just over half of potential Republican voters in New Hampshire believe the false claim that Joe Biden won the 2020 election due to voter fraud. Among those who believe this claim, Trump has overwhelming support. However, among those who believe Biden won the election fairly, Haley has a strong lead.
The poll also shows that Trump is favored over Haley on four key issues among New Hampshire GOP voters: immigration policy, economic policy, foreign policy, and abortion. Trump enjoys the widest margin on immigration policy, which has been a focus of his attacks against Haley.
As the primary approaches, Haley is looking to gain momentum and close the gap with Trump. Her performance among undeclared voters and moderate-to-liberal Republicans will be crucial in determining her chances. Ultimately, New Hampshire’s primary will have a significant impact on the Republican nomination.